Today's briefing:
A Russian drone struck a Kyiv-Warsaw train 1.2 miles from Poland.
Iraq-launched drones shut a Saudi pipeline, and oil closed above $100.
Germany defused 21 explosive devices found near its power grid.
Control is one of the greatest advantages we have as protectors. If a route becomes unsafe, we change it. If the timing creates unnecessary exposure, we move it. And if the environment is working against us, we find another way. However, there are situations where the principal still has to move and none of those choices are available. That was the reality facing a diplomatic train travelling from Kyiv to Warsaw when a Russian drone struck the railway just minutes behind it.
With Ukraine's airspace closed, the Kyiv-to-Warsaw rail corridor has become the standard route for moving diplomats and other VIPs in and out of the country. There may be ways to manage the risk, but there is no simple option to avoid the corridor altogether. For protectors, this creates one of the most difficult operational challenges: moving a principal along a path you cannot change, at a time you do not control, through an environment shaped by somebody else.
This week, On the Circuit, we look at how protection changes when the usual choices are no longer yours to make.
Don’t have time to read? Watch 👇
TOP STORY
A Drone Struck Minutes Behind Boris Johnson
A Russian drone hit the locomotive of a Kyiv-to-Warsaw passenger train early on Sunday, about 1.2 miles from the Polish border in Ukraine's Volyn region. Minutes earlier, a diplomatic train had passed through the same station at Yahodyn carrying former British prime minister Boris Johnson, European security advisers and former European leaders. Former CIA director David Petraeus was at the station on another train. The group was leaving Ukraine after the Yalta European Strategy conference in Kyiv. No one was hurt. For the full timeline of the strike and the border closure, see the report we ran in Circuit Wire.
Ukrainian Railways' monitoring team picked up the incoming drone, warned the crew, and passengers were moved off. The diplomatic train had already pulled out ahead of schedule because of the constant threat of strikes. A second drone came down less than a mile from the border at the Yahodyn crossing, which closed for a time. Ukraine and Poland say the diplomatic train may have been the intended target. President Zelenskyy said Moscow hit the locomotive deliberately, and Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski said the strike landed a few hundred meters from Polish soil.
With Ukraine's airspace closed, these rail lines are the standard ground route for visiting delegations, the same corridors that carry much of the Western military and humanitarian aid. The route is fixed, the timetable is known, and the crossings are few. Polish prime minister Donald Tusk said Russia's escalation near the border is becoming a fact, and pointed to Moscow's growing use of jet-powered long-range drones, which fly faster and are harder to intercept than the propeller models. Rail crews now adjust timetables in real time around strike warnings. Russian munitions have landed on the Polish side before. A missile killed two people in the village of Przewodow in 2022.
Our Take
This was not a case of the protection on board the diplomatic train defeating the threat. The train was safe because it was no longer there when the drone arrived. Ukrainian Railways had detected the incoming attack, warned the crew and adjusted the movement accordingly. The strike then hit the locomotive of the following passenger service, while everyone escaped injury.
Whether the diplomatic delegation was the intended target remains unconfirmed, but its passage through the same station minutes earlier makes the exposure clear. On a fixed railway, there is little a protection team can do to disguise the route, and hardening the carriage offers limited value if the locomotive or track is attacked. What worked at Yahodyn was the ability to see the threat developing and move outside the expected timing. For protectors, the point is simple: when the route cannot change, predictability has to.
Sound even smarter:
The delegation was returning from the Yalta European Strategy conference in Kyiv, and the group included former Swedish prime minister Carl Bildt, per CNN on September 14.
In November 2022, a Russian-made missile came down in the Polish village of Przewodow and killed two people, the first deaths on NATO soil since the war began.
READER POLL
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THE SPECIALIST SERIES - VOL 1
TACTICAL MEDICINE
The Protectors Guide to Saving Lives Under pressure
The Tactical Medicine is your field guide when something goes wrong on a detail. It covers what to carry, what to do in the first few minutes when a casualty cannot wait, and how to keep someone alive until the professionals take over.
MEANWHILE
The Drones That Pushed Oil Past $100
Drones launched from Maysan province in southeastern Iraq hit Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline last Thursday, the 745-mile line that carries 4 to 5 percent of the world's oil and lets the kingdom move crude to the Red Sea without using the Strait of Hormuz, partially closed since February. Riyadh shut the line as a precaution, and oil closed above $100 a barrel for the first time since mid-May. No group claimed the strike. Iraq's Islamic Resistance denied involvement, and President Trump said Iran was probably behind it without offering evidence.
Iraq seized the launch platform, dismissed the Maysan military commander and police chief, and closed three border crossings into Iran, later reopening them only for humanitarian traffic. In the same week, Houthi forces seized the Red Sea port of Mocha and pushed toward Bab al-Mandeb. Kuwait called the pipeline attack a dangerous escalation for the region.
Deported on Evidence She Never Saw
The Justice Department removed Nazira Haji Zada, a 47-year-old Afghan national who lived in Fort Worth, to Afghanistan in the first case ever heard by the Alien Terrorist Removal Court, a body Congress created in 1996 and never used in the 30 years since. The court issued its order on August 20, and officials unsealed it on September 11 after she had already left. She conceded she is an alien terrorist, waived her right to appeal, and is now permanently barred. She was never charged with a crime.
Prosecutors tie her to an ISIS-inspired plan for an Election Day mass shooting in 2024. Her son was sentenced to 15 years and her son-in-law pleaded guilty to two terrorism offenses. The government made its case with classified material the defense could not see, and the court's rules mean the accused cannot review the secret evidence or challenge how it was gathered. Her public defenders argued that breached her due-process rights before she agreed to leave.
SNAPSHOTS
🇾🇪 Yemen. Houthi forces seized the Red Sea port of Mocha on September 10 and pushed toward Dhubab, bringing Bab al-Mandeb within artillery range. Their ban on Saudi-linked ships stays in place.
🇩🇪 Germany. Police defused 21 homemade explosive devices found near high-voltage lines in Saxony and are still hunting a man who mailed letters claiming a campaign of grid sabotage.
🇮🇶 Iraq. Baghdad closed three border crossings into Iran, at Shalamcheh, al-Shib and Mandali, after tracing the Saudi pipeline drones to Maysan, then reopened them only for humanitarian traffic.
🇫🇷 France. Firefighters, hospital staff and civil servants are under strike notices through late September, with major demonstrations set for the 15th and the 29th and public-service disruption expected.
EXTRA INSIGHT
STATE THREAT. London's Metropolitan Police arrested a 42-year-old woman and a 60-year-old man on September 9 on suspicion of assisting Iranian intelligence, under the National Security Act. Commander Helen Flanagan said there was no imminent threat to the public but pointed to a marked rise in state-threat work over the past year. Two other Iranian nationals are due to stand trial next year over spying on Jewish and Israeli targets in London.
EVENT SECURITY. New York closed streets around Ground Zero for the 25th anniversary of 9/11 and posted officers at synagogues across the five boroughs for the Jewish High Holy Days. Commissioner Jessica Tisch said confirmed hate crimes are up 16 percent this year, with more than half targeting Jewish New Yorkers, even as shootings and murders sit near record lows.
Microsoft shipped its largest monthly patch on record, fixing 966 flaws including two Windows bugs attackers were already using to take full control of a machine.
The US State Department posted a $10 million reward for Amir Yaryab, named as the head of Iran's military hacking arm behind repeated attacks on US water systems.
The US and UK signed a first-of-its-kind agreement to dismantle the Southeast Asian scam compounds that drain Americans of about $10 billion a year.
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Deepfakes and the Principal:
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There will be times when the route cannot be changed and the principal still has to move. In those situations, protection comes down to how well you manage the things that remain within your control. In this case, the difference was the decision to leave early and the ability to act on information as the threat developed. As protectors, we need plans, but we also need the freedom and confidence to move away from them when circumstances demand it. When you cannot change the path, changing the timing may be what keeps the principal safe.
See you next week,
– On The Circuit
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PREVIOUS POLL - RESULTS
Q: What most influences the threats your organization prepares for?
🟩🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ Current intelligence and assessments (44%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ Past incidents and lessons learned (22%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ Client or leadership concerns (22%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ Established procedures and requirements (0%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ Something else. Tell us > (11%)
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